A prophet and loss

I posted the following today on the BNP section of the British Democracy Forum.

A couple of weeks ago, on a thread about the Goresbrook ward by-election result, I posted the following:

"The BNP share of the vote is down 3.2% on a by-election in the same ward held almost two years ago.

"If this decrease were to be extrapolated to the BNP's share of the vote in the London Assembly election of 2008, the party's share of the vote in the 2012 London Assembly election would be 2.1% (5.3% - 3.2%). In other words, the BNP would fail to get a candidate elected to the Assembly. It would also lose its deposit.

"Of course, this is very speculative and unscientific. Goresbrook must be one of the party's best wards in London. But for the party's share of the vote to have declined there, by more than three per cent, surely cannot bode well for its vote in the rest of the capital.

"Mr Squire may well succeed in being elected to the Assembly. But, bearing in mind his background, what kind of a fist would he would make of representing our people there?

"The fact that the BNP has a core vote should not surprise us. But let's not pat ourselves on the back when our core vote turns out. If we are to save our country and turn back the tide of ethnically alien immigration, we need to do much better than elect a single candidate, of doubtful ability, to an assembly elected largely via proportional representation.

"We need a new leader. Failing that, we need a new party."

I should say, however, in all modesty, that I make no claim to be a prophet.